When I first started in private equity real estate, having a “data-driven” pitch in CRE was a unique approach to investing. Now, you will struggle to find a firm that doesn’t tout itself as being “data-driven”. I call bullshit.
Tell me I’m wrong…
If investing was truly data-driven and NOT based on human (read: emotional) decision-making, we’d see more massive swings than we do now. Real estate firms may be using data, but their ultimate decision is still based on emotion.
The public markets comparison
The more data-driven your decision-making, the more automated it becomes. And the more automated your decision making, the more likely you are to follow the crowd instead of making smart, forest-for-the-trees decisions. Take automated trading in the public markets.
In 2016, the SEC launched an experiment to evaluate the impact of algorithmic trading. They focused on small companies with market capitalizations between $1 billion and $3 billion. To reduce algorithmic trading, the SEC increased the tick size for these companies. The SEC successfully saw a decrease of 11% in trading for these smaller stocks. As a side effect, they noted that “searches for those companies’ filings on the SEC’s website surged, especially in the weeks before their earnings announcements.”
As a result of the SEC’s experiment, the smaller stocks accurately reflected earnings’ reports. Algorithmic (read: automated) trading actually made pricing less effective. The algorithms were programmed to follow the lead of large hedge funds rather than base their trades on sound judgment of a company’s performance.
Consider this…
When you’re investing in real estate using your data-driven approach, are you using the same data as everyone else?
If everyone uses the same data, how does being data-driven give you an edge?
Software failures, bad algorithms, etc.
If real estate firms truly are data-driven, why don’t we hear more about massive software failures impacting real estate businesses? Or algorithms that have mistakes or biases?
We don’t.
Over-optimization
If real estate firms were relying on data to make their investment decisions, then we would see much more over-optimization on successful strategies. Instead, as real estate firms grow, we typically see a diversification across all strategies. The classic “CYA” approach emerges instead of 1000% believing and acting on data to drive decisions.
As humans, we often expect the unexpected and will intentionally NOT rely on data if our fear of the unknown trumps whatever strong signals we may encounter.
The new “data-driven” pitch in CRE
Rather than saying your firm is data-driven like literally everyone else, talk about:
- your institutional decision-making process,
- the data that you have that no one else uses (i.e. YOUR data), and
- all of the other ways that you’re NOT following the crowd.
Being data-driven, while unlikely an accurate claim by the oodles of real estate firms using it, is now commonplace. If you want to stand out, you need to find an alternative niche. Tell me I’m wrong about the “data-driven” pitch. Or actually be innovative.
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